Population surveillance of dementia mortality.

Geographic and temporal variation in occurrence of dementia within the US has received little attention despite its importance for generation of new etiologic hypotheses and health services research. We examine methodological problems in the use of vital statistics data for assessing variation over time, among states and within states in the US. We analyzed the US multiple cause of death files for 2005-2006 and 1999-2000 US deaths with Alzheimer's Disease (International Classification of Disease 10th revision code G30) and other dementias (codes F01, F02, R54) coded as underlying or contributing cause of death based on the death certificate. Age-adjusted death rates were computed by year, state or county for persons aged 65 years and over. In 2005-2006 combined, 555,904 total deaths occurred with any dementia type (212,386 for Alzheimer's disease) coded as underlying or contributing cause. Among the states, age-adjusted rates per 100,000 per year varied by two fold ranging from 458 in New York to 921 in Oregon. Similar geographic patterns were seen for Alzheimer's disease. However, between 1999-2000 and 2005-2006 the US death rate for all dementia increased only from 559 to 695 (24%) while that for Alzheimer's disease doubled from 135 to 266. Use of specific (G30, F01) versus non-specific diagnoses (F02, R54) varied among states and over time, explaining most of the temporal increase in rate of Alzheimer's disease. Further research is needed to assess artifacts of diagnosis, certification or coding, utilization of health services, versus biological variation as possible causes of temporal and geographic variation to enhance utility of mortality data for dementia monitoring and research.