Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Stroke. 2011 Aug;42(8):2126-30. doi: 10.1161/STROKEAHA.110.599712. Epub 2011 Jun 23.
This article aims to make projections of future trends in stroke mortality in the Year 2030 based on recent trends in stroke mortality in 7 Western European countries.
Mortality data were obtained from national cause of death registries. Annual rates of decline in stroke mortality of 1980 to 2005 were determined for men and women in the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, and 4 Nordic countries on the basis of regression analysis. Estimated rates of decline were extrapolated until 2030. Cause-elimination life tables were used to determine the effect of stroke in 2030 in terms of potential gain in life expectancy. The absolute numbers of stroke deaths in 2030 were estimated using national population projections of Eurostat.
In all countries, stroke mortality rates declined incessantly until 2005 among both men and women. If these trends were to continue, age-adjusted mortality rates would decline by approximately half between 2005 and 2030 with larger declines in France (approximately two thirds) and smaller declines in the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden (approximately one fourth). Similar rates of decline would be observed in terms of potential gain in life expectancy. Because of population aging, the absolute number of stroke deaths would decline slowly in the United Kingdom and France and stabilize or even increase in other countries.
In the near future, stroke may lose much of its effects on life expectancy but remain a frequent cause of death among elderly populations. The prevention of stroke-related disability instead of mortality may become increasingly more important.
本文旨在根据 7 个西欧国家最近的卒中死亡率趋势，对 2030 年卒中死亡率的未来趋势进行预测。
死亡率数据来自国家死因登记处。根据回归分析，确定了英国、法国、荷兰和 4 个北欧国家男性和女性在 1980 年至 2005 年期间卒中死亡率的年下降率。对估计的下降率进行外推，直至 2030 年。使用消除病因生命表，根据 2030 年预期寿命的潜在增益来确定卒中的影响。使用欧盟统计局的国家人口预测，估计 2030 年的卒中死亡绝对人数。
在所有国家，男性和女性的卒中死亡率都在持续下降，直到 2005 年。如果这些趋势持续下去，2005 年至 2030 年期间，调整年龄后的死亡率将下降约一半，法国的降幅最大（约三分之二），荷兰、丹麦和瑞典的降幅较小（约四分之一）。预期寿命的潜在增益也会观察到类似的下降趋势。由于人口老龄化，英国和法国的卒中死亡绝对人数将缓慢下降，而其他国家的卒中死亡人数则稳定或甚至增加。
在不久的将来，卒中可能会在很大程度上降低其对预期寿命的影响，但仍然是老年人的主要死因之一。预防与卒中相关的残疾而不是死亡率可能会变得越来越重要。
