Can Thrifty Gene(s) or Predictive Fetal Programming for Thriftiness Lead to Obesity?

Obesity and related disorders are thought to have their roots in metabolic "thriftiness" that evolved to combat periodic starvation. The association of low birth weight with obesity in later life caused a shift in the concept from thrifty gene to thrifty phenotype or anticipatory fetal programming. The assumption of thriftiness is implicit in obesity research. We examine here, with the help of a mathematical model, the conditions for evolution of thrifty genes or fetal programming for thriftiness. The model suggests that a thrifty gene cannot exist in a stable polymorphic state in a population. The conditions for evolution of thrifty fetal programming are restricted if the correlation between intrauterine and lifetime conditions is poor. Such a correlation is not observed in natural courses of famine. If there is fetal programming for thriftiness, it could have evolved in anticipation of social factors affecting nutrition that can result in a positive correlation.