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一种新的低成本方法来估计孟加拉国三家医院流域范围内日本脑炎的发病率。

A novel low-cost approach to estimate the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in the catchment area of three hospitals in Bangladesh.

机构信息

International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Government of the People's Republic of Bangladesh.

出版信息

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2011 Aug;85(2):379-85. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0706.

Abstract

Acute meningoencephalitis syndrome surveillance was initiated in three medical college hospitals in Bangladesh in October 2007 to identify Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases. We estimated the population-based incidence of JE in the three hospitals' catchment areas by adjusting the hospital-based crude incidence of JE by the proportion of catchment area meningoencephalitis cases who were admitted to surveillance hospitals. Instead of a traditional house-to-house survey, which is expensive for a disease with low frequency, we attempted a novel approach to identify meningoencephalitis cases in the hospital catchment area through social networks among the community residents. The estimated JE incidence was 2.7/100,000 population in Rajshahi (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.8-4.9), 1.4 in Khulna (95% CI = 0.9-4.1), and 0.6 in Chittagong (95% CI = 0.4-0.9). Bangladesh should consider a pilot project to introduce JE vaccine in high-incidence areas.

摘要

2007 年 10 月,孟加拉国的三所医学院附属医院启动了急性脑膜脑炎综合征监测,以发现日本脑炎(JE)病例。我们通过调整医院报告的 JE 粗发病率与报告医院收治的脑炎病例在监测医院的收治比例,估算了这三所医院集水区的 JE 基于人群的发病率。我们没有采用传统的挨家挨户调查,因为这种方法对于发病率较低的疾病来说成本过高,而是尝试了一种新颖的方法,通过社区居民之间的社交网络在医院集水区发现脑膜脑炎病例。在 Rajshahi 的估计 JE 发病率为 2.7/100,000 人(95%置信区间[CI] = 1.8-4.9),在 Khulna 为 1.4/100,000 人(95%CI = 0.9-4.1),在 Chittagong 为 0.6/100,000 人(95%CI = 0.4-0.9)。孟加拉国应该考虑在高发地区开展 JE 疫苗试点项目。

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