Eddy D M, Hasselblad V, Shachter R
Center for Health Policy, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27706.
Med Decis Making. 1990 Jan-Mar;10(1):15-23. doi: 10.1177/0272989X9001000104.
The Confidence Profile Method is a new Bayesian method that can be used to assess technologies where the available evidence involves a variety of experimental designs, types of outcomes, and effect measures; a variety of biases; combinations of biases and nested bases; uncertainty about biases; an underlying variability in the parameter of interest; indirect evidence; and technology families. The result of an analysis with the Confidence Profile Method is a posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, posterior distributions for other parameters, and a covariance matrix for all the parameters in the model. The posterior distributions incorporate all the uncertainty the assessor chooses to describe about any of the parameters used in the analysis.
置信剖面法是一种新的贝叶斯方法，可用于评估技术，其中可用证据涉及各种实验设计、结果类型和效应量度；各种偏倚；偏倚和嵌套偏倚的组合；偏倚的不确定性；感兴趣参数的潜在变异性；间接证据；以及技术族。使用置信剖面法进行分析的结果是感兴趣参数的后验分布、其他参数的后验分布以及模型中所有参数的协方差矩阵。后验分布纳入了评估者选择描述的关于分析中使用的任何参数的所有不确定性。
