运用决策分析模拟模型评估儿童福利政策。
Evaluating child welfare policies with decision-analytic simulation models.
机构信息
Stanford Health Policy, Stanford University, 117 Encina Commons, Stanford, CA 94305-6019, USA.
出版信息
Adm Policy Ment Health. 2012 Nov;39(6):466-77. doi: 10.1007/s10488-011-0370-z.
Abstract
The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP-a foster parenting intervention-and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP's effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.
摘要
目的是展示决策分析模型，以支持儿童福利政策制定者考虑实施基于证据的干预措施。结果包括永久性（例如，收养）和稳定性（例如，寄养安置变化）。对 KEEP 寄养养育干预措施和 NSCAW-1 的随机试验的分析估计了安置变化率和 KEEP 的效果。一个微观模拟模型将这些发现推广到其他儿童福利系统。该模型预测 KEEP 可以提高永久性和稳定性，确定针对高风险儿童和能够有效实现效益的地理区域的策略。决策分析模型使规划者能够衡量潜在实施的价值。
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