Department of Geography, and Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Aug 23;108(34):13919-24. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1013332108. Epub 2011 Aug 22.
We use field data linked to satellite image analysis to examine the relationship between biodiversity loss, deforestation, and poverty around Kibale National Park (KNP) in western Uganda, 1996-2006. Over this decade, KNP generally maintained forest cover, tree species, and primate populations, whereas neighboring communal forest patches were reduced by half and showed substantial declines in tree species and primate populations. However, a bad decade for forest outside the park proved a prosperous one for most local residents. Panel data for 252 households show substantial improvement in welfare indicators (e.g., safer water, more durable roof material), with the greatest increases found among those with highest initial assets. A combination of regression analysis and matching estimators shows that although the poor tend to be located on the park perimeter, proximity to the park has no measureable effect on growth of productive assets. The risk for land loss among the poor was inversely correlated with proximity to the park, initial farm size, and decline in adjacent communal forests. We conclude the current disproportionate presence of poor households at the edge of the park does not signal that the park is a poverty trap. Rather, Kibale appears to provide protection against desperation sales and farm loss among those most vulnerable.
我们利用与卫星图像分析相关的实地数据，检验了 1996 年至 2006 年间乌干达西部基巴莱国家公园（KNP）周边生物多样性减少、森林砍伐与贫困之间的关系。在这十年中，KNP 总体上保持了森林覆盖、树种和灵长类动物的数量，而邻近的社区森林斑块减少了一半，树种和灵长类动物的数量也大幅下降。然而，对公园外森林来说糟糕的十年对大多数当地居民来说却是繁荣的十年。对 252 户家庭的面板数据进行分析显示，福利指标有了实质性的改善（例如，更安全的水、更耐用的屋顶材料），初始资产最高的人群增加幅度最大。回归分析和匹配估计器的组合表明，尽管穷人往往位于公园周边，但与公园的接近程度对生产性资产的增长没有可衡量的影响。穷人失去土地的风险与靠近公园、初始农田规模以及毗邻社区森林的减少呈反比。我们的结论是，目前公园边缘贫困人口不成比例的存在并不表明公园是一个贫困陷阱。相反，基巴莱似乎为那些最脆弱的人提供了免受绝望销售和农田损失的保护。
