Mejía Omar Asdrúbal Vilca, Lisboa Luiz A Ferreira, Puig Luiz Boro, Dias Ricardo Ribeiro, Dallan Luís A, Pomerantzeff Pablo M, Stolf Noedir A G
Cardiovascular Surgeon (Sciences Doctoral Student; Heart Institute; University of São Paulo School of Medicine Clinics Hospital (InCor-HCFMUSP.).
Rev Bras Cir Cardiovasc. 2011 Jan-Mar;26(1):1-6. doi: 10.1590/s0102-76382011000100004.
To evaluate the performance of 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) for predicting surgical mortality at the Heart Institute, University of São Paulo.
A prospective observational design. Seven hundred and seventy four patients were operated for coronary artery bypass graft, valve or combined procedure between May and October, 2007, were analyzed. The mortality was estimated with the 2000BP and ES. The correlation between expected mortality and observed mortality was validated through calibration and discrimination test.
The patients were stratified into five groups for the 2000BP and three for the ES. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test for 2000BP (P = 0.70) and for ES (P = 0.39) indicate a good calibration. The ROC curve for the 2000BP = 0.84 and for the ES = 0.81 confirms that the models are good predictors (P<0.001).
Both models are similar and adequate in predicting surgical mortality at the InCor-USP.
评估2000版伯恩斯坦 - 帕森内特评分（2000BP）和累加式欧洲心脏手术风险评估系统（ES）预测圣保罗大学心脏研究所手术死亡率的性能。
采用前瞻性观察性设计。分析了2007年5月至10月间774例行冠状动脉搭桥术、瓣膜手术或联合手术的患者。用2000BP和ES评估死亡率。通过校准和鉴别试验验证预期死亡率与观察到的死亡率之间的相关性。
2000BP将患者分为五组，ES将患者分为三组。2000BP的 Hosmer - Lemeshow检验（P = 0.70）和ES的Hosmer - Lemeshow检验（P = 0.39）表明校准良好。2000BP的ROC曲线为0.84，ES的ROC曲线为0.81，证实这两个模型都是良好的预测指标（P<0.001）。
在预测圣保罗大学心脏研究所的手术死亡率方面，这两个模型相似且适用。
