Epidemiological Research Team, National Institute of Animal Health, 3-1-5 Kannondai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.
Res Vet Sci. 2012 Oct;93(2):631-5. doi: 10.1016/j.rvsc.2011.09.001. Epub 2011 Sep 25.
To provide a basis for effective foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) prevention measures, factors associated with local spread were investigated in this study using data of the 2010 FMD epidemic in Japan. Thirty-eight local clusters within a 500-m radius from source farms were selected. In the clusters with pig source farms, more neighboring farms were infected in a short time compared with the clusters with cattle source farms. The influence of distance and wind upon local spread did not show a significant difference between infected and noninfected neighboring farms. Large-size pig farms posed a greater risk of inducing local spread; the odds ratio with reference to small-size cattle farms was 16.73. Middle-size and large-size cattle farms had a greater risk of infection; odds ratios with reference to small-size cattle farms were 15.65 and 25.52, respectively. The present results are useful for understanding features of local spread and prioritizing farms for control measures.
为了提供有效的口蹄疫（FMD）预防措施的依据，本研究利用日本 2010 年 FMD 疫情的数据，调查了与局部传播相关的因素。从源农场半径 500 米范围内选择了 38 个局部集群。在有猪源农场的集群中，与有牛源农场的集群相比，更多的邻近农场在短时间内被感染。距离和风向对局部传播的影响在感染和未感染的邻近农场之间没有显著差异。大型养猪场更容易引发局部传播；相对于小型牛场，其优势比为 16.73。中型和大型牛场感染的风险更大；相对于小型牛场，其优势比分别为 15.65 和 25.52。本研究结果有助于了解局部传播的特征，并为控制措施确定重点农场。
