Centre for Health Service Research and Technology Assessment, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark.
J Health Serv Res Policy. 2012 Jan;17(1):44-52. doi: 10.1258/jhsrp.2011.010133. Epub 2011 Sep 27.
To investigate whether the credibility of health economic models of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms for health policy decision-making has improved since 2005 when a systematic review by Campbell et al. concluded that reporting standards were poor and there was divergence between the findings of studies that was hard to explain.
A systematic literature review was carried out following PRISMA reporting principles. Health economic models of the cost-effectiveness of screening for abdominal aortic aneurysms published between 2005-2010 were included. Key characteristics were extracted and the models were assessed for quality against guidelines for best practice by a multidisciplinary team.
Seven models were identified and found to provide divergent guidance. Only three reports met 10 of the 15 quality criteria.
Researchers in the field seem to have benefited from general advances in health economic modelling and some improvements in reporting were noted. However, the low level of agreement between studies in model structures and assumptions, and difficulty in justifying these (convergent validity), remain a threat to the credibility of health economic models. Decision-makers should not accept the results of a modelling study if the methods are not fully transparent and justified. Modellers should, whenever relevant, supplement a primary report of results with a technical report detailing and discussing the methodological choices made.
调查自 2005 年坎贝尔等人的系统评价得出报告标准较差且难以解释研究结果之间存在分歧的结论以来，针对腹部主动脉瘤筛查的卫生经济学模型是否在为卫生政策决策提供可信度方面有所改善。
按照 PRISMA 报告原则进行系统文献回顾。纳入了 2005 年至 2010 年间发表的关于筛查腹部主动脉瘤的成本效益的卫生经济学模型。由多学科团队根据最佳实践指南提取关键特征并评估模型质量。
确定了 7 个模型，发现它们提供了不同的指导。只有三份报告符合 15 项质量标准中的 10 项。
该领域的研究人员似乎受益于卫生经济建模的普遍进步，并且注意到报告方面的一些改进。然而，模型结构和假设方面研究之间的低一致性以及难以证明这些假设的合理性（收敛有效性）仍然对卫生经济学模型的可信度构成威胁。如果方法不透明且合理，决策者不应接受建模研究的结果。建模者应在相关情况下，用详细说明和讨论所做方法选择的技术报告补充主要结果报告。
