Carpenter T E
Center for Animal Disease Modeling and Surveillance, Department of Medicine and Epidemiology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of California, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA.
Rev Sci Tech. 2011 Aug;30(2):417-24. doi: 10.20506/rst.30.2.2044.
Animal disease epidemic models are useful for better understanding both the spread and control of disease in a population. While it is advisable that models be only as complex as needed, it is often necessary to modify simplifying assumptions and thus increase model complexity to better reflect reality. Here, the author will examine the need for increasing model complexity by including randomness in a model and modifying the assumption of homogeneous mixing, by introducing a spatial component into the model. The costs and benefits of these changes will be examined.
动物疾病流行模型有助于更好地理解疾病在种群中的传播和控制。虽然建议模型仅根据需要保持复杂程度,但通常有必要修改简化假设,从而增加模型复杂性以更好地反映现实。在此,作者将研究通过在模型中纳入随机性、修改均匀混合假设以及在模型中引入空间成分来增加模型复杂性的必要性。还将研究这些变化的成本和收益。