Department of Plant Nutrition, China Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Plant Nutrition and Nutrient Cycling, Ministry of Agriculture, and Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100193, China.
J Exp Bot. 2012 Jan;63(1):13-24. doi: 10.1093/jxb/err248. Epub 2011 Sep 30.
In recent years, agricultural growth in China has accelerated remarkably, but most of this growth has been driven by increased yield per unit area rather than by expansion of the cultivated area. Looking towards 2030, to meet the demand for grain and to feed a growing population on the available arable land, it is suggested that annual crop production should be increased to around 580 Mt and that yield should increase by at least 2% annually. Crop production will become more difficult with climate change, resource scarcity (e.g. land, water, energy, and nutrients) and environmental degradation (e.g. declining soil quality, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and surface water eutrophication). To pursue the fastest and most practical route to improved yield, the near-term strategy is application and extension of existing agricultural technologies. This would lead to substantial improvement in crop and soil management practices, which are currently suboptimal. Two pivotal components are required if we are to follow new trajectories. First, the disciplines of soil management and agronomy need to be given increased emphasis in research and teaching, as part of a grand food security challenge. Second, continued genetic improvement in crop varieties will be vital. However, our view is that the biggest gains from improved technology will come most immediately from combinations of improved crops and improved agronomical practices. The objectives of this paper are to summarize the historical trend of crop production in China and to examine the main constraints to the further increase of crop productivity. The paper provides a perspective on the challenge faced by science and technology in agriculture which must be met both in terms of increased crop productivity but also in increased resource use efficiency and the protection of environmental quality.
近年来，中国农业增长显著加速，但这种增长主要是由单位面积产量的增加推动的，而不是耕地面积的扩大。展望 2030 年，为了满足粮食需求，在现有可耕地养活不断增长的人口，建议将年度作物产量提高到约 5.80 亿吨，产量每年至少增加 2%。气候变化、资源短缺（如土地、水、能源和养分）以及环境退化（如土壤质量下降、温室气体排放增加和地表水富营养化）使得作物生产变得更加困难。为了追求提高产量的最快和最实用的途径，近期的策略是应用和推广现有的农业技术。这将导致作物和土壤管理实践的大幅改善，而目前这些实践并不理想。如果我们要遵循新的轨迹，需要两个关键的组成部分。首先，需要在研究和教学中更加重视土壤管理和农学这两个学科，作为应对粮食安全重大挑战的一部分。其次，作物品种的遗传改良将是至关重要的。然而，我们认为，改进技术带来的最大收益将最直接来自改良作物和改良农业实践的结合。本文的目的是总结中国作物生产的历史趋势，并考察进一步提高作物生产力的主要制约因素。本文还提供了一个视角，审视了农业科学技术所面临的挑战，这些挑战不仅涉及提高作物生产力，还涉及提高资源利用效率和保护环境质量。
