Grain Self-Sufficiency in Guangdong, China: Current Trends and Future Perspectives.

The rising number of disturbances caused by natural hazards, epidemics, and international conflicts seriously threatens global agriculture and food systems. In order to combat the increasing uncertainty, the Chinese government proposed a "dual circulation" strategy, which puts forward a new requirement of promoting self-sufficiency. Among various food categories, grain serves as a cornerstone for sustaining human life during public crises. Guangdong Province is one of the most economically developed and highly densely populated regions in China; therefore, it faces significant pressure to enhance food security. This study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of the rate of grain self-sufficiency (RSSG) at the county levels in Guangdong Province from 2014 to 2023. The findings reveal the following: (1) rice remains the predominant grain crop, with its sown area and production consistently accounting for over 75%; (2) the RSSG is 28.14% on average, which is lower than the governmental goal of 30%; (3) the RSSG has significant regional disparities and distinct agglomeration patterns; and (4) scenario simulations indicate that grain yield improvement and grain loss reduction have the potential to promote the RSSG to 34.14%. Based on the research findings, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations: (1) prioritize farmland preservation and implement the "storing grain in the land" strategy to ensure food supply; (2) adopt advanced agricultural technologies under the "storing grain in the technology" strategy to improve grain yield; (3) reduce grain loss by strengthening disaster prevention, improving storage management, and enhancing storage efficiency; and (4) strengthen interdepartmental coordination. The integrated application of these strategies will help Guangdong Province enhance its grain self-sufficiency, ensure food security, and contribute to the achievement of national food security goals.