Witnauer William D, Rogers Richard G, Saint Onge Jarron M
86 Castle Ct, Amherst, NY 14226, USA.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2007 Aug;26(4):371-386. doi: 10.1007/s11113-007-9038-5.
Although baseball is considered "the" American pastime, little is known about the career prospects of the individuals who play the game. This study fills that void by examining the careers of baseball players over the last century. Between 1902 and 1993, 5,989 position players started their careers and played 33,272 person years of major league baseball. A rookie position player can expect to play 5.6 years; one in five position players will have only a single-year career, and at every point of a player's career, the chance of exiting is at least 11%. Position players who start younger and begin their career in more recent decades all have longer and more stable careers; nevertheless, baseball careers are not compressed versions of normal careers, but are substantially skewed toward early exit.
尽管棒球被视为“美国的”消遣活动，但对于从事这项运动的个人的职业前景却知之甚少。本研究通过考察上个世纪棒球运动员的职业生涯填补了这一空白。在1902年至1993年期间，5989名内场手开启了他们的职业生涯，参加了33272人年的美国职业棒球大联盟比赛。一名初出茅庐的内场手预计能打5.6年；五分之一的内场手职业生涯只有一年，而且在球员职业生涯的每个阶段，退出的几率至少为11%。起步年龄较小且在最近几十年开启职业生涯的内场手都拥有更长且更稳定的职业生涯；然而，棒球生涯并非正常职业生涯的压缩版，而是严重倾向于早早退出。
