Bank of England, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 Dec 13;369(1956):4798-817. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2011.0299.
Uncertainty is pervasive in economic policy-making. Modern economies share similarities with other complex systems in their unpredictability. But economic systems also differ from those in the natural sciences because outcomes are affected by the state of beliefs of the systems' participants. The dynamics of beliefs and how they interact with economic outcomes can be rich and unpredictable. This paper relates these ideas to the recent crisis, which has reminded us that we need a financial system that is resilient in the face of the unpredictable and extreme. It also highlights how such uncertainty puts a premium on sound communication strategies by policy-makers. This creates challenges in informing others about the uncertainties in the economy, and how policy is set in the face of those uncertainties. We show how the Bank of England tries to deal with some of these challenges in its communications about monetary policy.
不确定性在经济决策中普遍存在。现代经济在不可预测性方面与其他复杂系统具有相似性。但是，经济系统与自然科学中的系统不同，因为结果受到系统参与者信念状态的影响。信念的动态及其与经济结果的相互作用可能是丰富且不可预测的。本文将这些想法与最近的危机联系起来，这场危机提醒我们，我们需要一个在面对不可预测和极端情况时具有弹性的金融体系。它还强调了这种不确定性如何使政策制定者的健全沟通策略变得更加重要。这在向他人传达经济中的不确定性以及在面对这些不确定性时制定政策方面带来了挑战。我们展示了英格兰银行如何在其货币政策沟通中应对其中的一些挑战。
