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大流行期间的理性决策。

Rational policymaking during a pandemic.

机构信息

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School of Management, University of Lille, Unité Mixte de Recherche 9221-Lille Economics Management, 59000 Lille, France;

Resources for the Future-Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (RFF-CMCC) European Institute on Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, 20123 Milan, Italy.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Jan 26;118(4). doi: 10.1073/pnas.2012704118.

DOI:10.1073/pnas.2012704118
PMID:33472971
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7848715/
Abstract

Policymaking during a pandemic can be extremely challenging. As COVID-19 is a new disease and its global impacts are unprecedented, decisions are taken in a highly uncertain, complex, and rapidly changing environment. In such a context, in which human lives and the economy are at stake, we argue that using ideas and constructs from modern decision theory, even informally, will make policymaking a more responsible and transparent process.

摘要

在大流行期间制定政策可能极具挑战性。由于 COVID-19 是一种新疾病,其全球影响前所未有,因此决策是在高度不确定、复杂和快速变化的环境中做出的。在这种情况下,人类的生命和经济都处于危险之中,我们认为,即使非正式地使用现代决策理论的思想和概念,也将使决策过程更加负责和透明。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9d6/7848715/e1fc33911f8b/pnas.2012704118fig02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9d6/7848715/c9b3d6fa92da/pnas.2012704118fig01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9d6/7848715/e1fc33911f8b/pnas.2012704118fig02.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9d6/7848715/c9b3d6fa92da/pnas.2012704118fig01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d9d6/7848715/e1fc33911f8b/pnas.2012704118fig02.jpg

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SSM Popul Health. 2020 Dec;12:100651. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2020.100651. Epub 2020 Oct 14.
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Dying in a Leadership Vacuum.在领导力真空状态下走向灭亡。
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Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study.
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