Popul Stud (Camb). 1977 Mar;31(1):85-106. doi: 10.1080/00324728.1977.10412749.
Summary Model fertility schedules based on the proportions married and the age pattern of marital fertility are unsatisfactory to the extent that marital fertility does not depend on age alone but also on other factors. Most notably, models based just on age fail to allow for differences between populations in their composition by marriage duration. Examination of the major series of fertility rates specific by both age and duration of marriage (Sweden 1911-70, England and Wales, 1941-70) reveals striking underlying regularities. The marital fertility rates observed at any given point in time can be factored into three independent components - an overall level, a vector of age effects common to all marriage durations and a vector of duration effects common to all age groups. A simple product of these three components is shown to approximate the data very closely over the entire series, despite major changes in the aggregate levels of fertility and nuptiality during the periods concerned. Not only are the data tightly structured, conforming very closely to this simple multiplicative model, but the vectors of age and duration effects themselves are shown to exhibit clear and meaningful regularities.
基于已婚比例和婚姻生育模式的生育率模型并不令人满意，因为婚姻生育不仅取决于年龄，还取决于其他因素。尤其是，仅基于年龄的模型无法考虑到不同人群在婚姻持续时间方面的构成差异。对按年龄和婚姻持续时间细分的主要生育率系列（瑞典 1911-1970 年，英格兰和威尔士 1941-1970 年）的考察揭示了明显的基本规律。在任何特定时间观察到的婚姻生育率都可以分解为三个独立的组成部分——一个整体水平、一个适用于所有婚姻持续时间的年龄效应向量和一个适用于所有年龄组的持续时间效应向量。尽管在相关期间生育率和初婚率的总和水平发生了重大变化，但这三个组成部分的简单乘积被证明非常接近整个系列的数据。不仅数据结构紧密，非常符合这种简单的乘法模型，而且年龄和持续时间效应本身的向量也表现出明显而有意义的规律。
