Popul Stud (Camb). 1970 Mar;24(1):5-20. doi: 10.1080/00324728.1970.10406109.
Abstract Empirical expressions derived by Coale and Demeny accurately characterized the relationships among death rates of different age groups for each sex during an extended period of time in Western nations. However, the relationships have changed in recent years, as the mortality of older persons has increasingly exceeded the level expected on the basis of these expressions. The recent disruption is relatively small for females and may be due to very rapid declines in maternal mortality. Among males, the change has been quite pronounced, and it is suggested that increases in cigarette consumption are largely responsible.
Coale 和 Demeny 推导出的经验公式准确地描述了在很长一段时间内,西方国家中不同性别各年龄段死亡率之间的关系。然而,近年来,这些关系发生了变化,因为老年人的死亡率越来越超过这些公式所预期的水平。最近的这种变化对于女性来说相对较小,可能是由于产妇死亡率的迅速下降。在男性中,这种变化则相当显著,有人认为这主要是由于香烟消费的增加所致。