Giesecke J, Scalia-Tomba G, Håkansson C, Karlsson A, Lidman K
Department of Infectious Disease Control (MME), Karolinska Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden.
Scand J Infect Dis. 1990;22(4):407-11. doi: 10.3109/00365549009027071.
The time from infection with HIV to symptoms and AIDS is an important parameter in describing the natural course of HIV infection. We here describe disease progression in a group of 389 homo- and bisexual men. Of these 102 had known dates of infection, and during an average follow-up time of 31 months (range 2-108), 28 of these progressed from being symptom-free (CDC group II and III) to having some symptom from CDC group IV; 7 progressed to AIDS. By life-table analysis, the estimated average time from seroconversion to first symptom is approximately 5 years and to AIDS approximately 8 years. Very few patients are diagnosed with AIDS the first 2 years after infection, but after that the risk seems to be 5-10% per year. Increasing use of anti-HIV medication will render studies of this kind difficult in the future.
从感染艾滋病毒到出现症状及发展为艾滋病的时间是描述艾滋病毒感染自然病程的一个重要参数。我们在此描述了一组389名同性恋和双性恋男性的疾病进展情况。其中102人已知感染日期，在平均31个月（范围为2 - 108个月）的随访期内，这些人中28人从无症状（疾病控制与预防中心II组和III组）进展到出现疾病控制与预防中心IV组的某些症状；7人进展为艾滋病。通过生命表分析，从血清转化到首次出现症状的估计平均时间约为5年，到发展为艾滋病约为8年。感染后的头两年很少有患者被诊断为艾滋病，但此后每年的风险似乎为5 - 10%。未来，抗艾滋病毒药物使用的增加将使此类研究变得困难。
