University of Chicago, 1313 E.60th St., Chicago, IL 60637, USA.
Am J Orthopsychiatry. 2012 Jan;82(1):19-31. doi: 10.1111/j.1939-0025.2011.01136.x.
This study examines a sample of foster youth at the onset of the transition to adulthood and explores how social bonds are related to the risk of arrest during adulthood. Drawing from official arrest records, event history models are used to examine the time to arrest. Because individuals may be at risk for different types of crime, competing risk regression models are used to distinguish among arrests for drug-related, nonviolent, or violent crimes. Between the ages of 17-18 and 24, 46% of former foster youth experience an arrest. Arrests were evenly distributed across drug, nonviolent, and violent crimes columns. Although findings fail to support the significance of social bonds to interpersonal domains, bonds to employment and education are associated with a lower risk for arrest. Child welfare policy and practice implications for building connections and protections around foster youth are discussed.
本研究以即将步入成年的寄养青年为样本，探讨了社会关系如何与成年后的被捕风险相关。研究利用官方逮捕记录，采用事件史模型来考察被捕时间。由于个体可能面临不同类型的犯罪风险，因此使用竞争风险回归模型来区分与毒品相关、非暴力和暴力犯罪有关的逮捕。在 17-18 岁到 24 岁之间，46%的前寄养青年经历过被捕。被捕在毒品、非暴力和暴力犯罪栏中分布均匀。尽管研究结果未支持社会关系对人际领域的重要性，但与就业和教育的联系与被捕风险降低有关。讨论了围绕寄养青年建立联系和保护的儿童福利政策和实践意义。
