School of Psychology, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia.
Cogn Sci. 2012 Apr;36(3):498-516. doi: 10.1111/j.1551-6709.2011.01221.x. Epub 2012 Jan 18.
For decisions between many alternatives, the benchmark result is Hick's Law: that response time increases log-linearly with the number of choice alternatives. Even when Hick's Law is observed for response times, divergent results have been observed for error rates-sometimes error rates increase with the number of choice alternatives, and sometimes they are constant. We provide evidence from two experiments that error rates are mostly independent of the number of choice alternatives, unless context effects induce participants to trade speed for accuracy across conditions. Error rate data have previously been used to discriminate between competing theoretical accounts of Hick's Law, and our results question the validity of those conclusions. We show that a previously dismissed optimal observer model might provide a parsimonious account of both response time and error rate data. The model suggests that people approximate Bayesian inference in multi-alternative choice, except for some perceptual limitations.
对于多种选择的决策，基准结果是 Hick 定律：反应时间与选择选项的数量呈对数线性增加。即使对于反应时间观察到了 Hick 定律，错误率也会出现分歧的结果——有时错误率随着选择选项的数量增加而增加，有时则保持不变。我们通过两个实验提供了证据，表明除非上下文效应导致参与者在不同条件下为了准确性而牺牲速度，否则错误率大多与选择选项的数量无关。错误率数据以前曾被用于区分 Hick 定律的竞争理论解释，我们的结果质疑了这些结论的有效性。我们表明，一个以前被忽视的最优观测器模型可能为反应时间和错误率数据提供一个简洁的解释。该模型表明，人们在多选择中近似贝叶斯推断，除了一些感知限制。
