Swedish Transport Administration, Sweden.
Accid Anal Prev. 2012 Mar;45:50-60. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2011.11.005. Epub 2011 Dec 26.
This study set out to examine the effects of studded tires on fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow in Sweden and also to investigate the extra benefits of electronic stability control (ESC) during the winter months. Two different studies are presented in this paper. Both studies used an induced exposure approach. In the main study, 369 in-depth studies of fatal crashes with passenger cars were analyzed to determine whether loss-of-control (LOC) had been a major component or not. Only crashes involving cars without ESC and equipped with approved studded or non-studded winter tires were analyzed. The additional study used police-reported crashes that occurred during the winter seasons 2003-2010, involving passenger cars with and without ESC. While police records in Sweden do not include any tire information, it was assumed that most cars involved in crashes during the winter period would be equipped with studded tires. Findings in the main study showed that in 64% of the fatal crashes on roads covered with ice or snow LOC had been a major component. Furthermore, in 82% of LOC crashes, the passenger car over-steered prior to collision. Studded tires were found to have a statistically significant effect of 42% in terms of fatal crash reduction on roads covered with ice or snow, compared to non-studded winter tires. The effect on dry or wet roads in the winter was negative, although statistically non-significant. In the additional study, it was found that ESC further reduced crashes with injuries by 29%. The benefits on severe and fatal crashes were slightly greater (32%), although the lower 95% confidence limit was lower. Although studded tires were shown to reduce the risk of fatal crash involvement, compared to non-studded winter tires, the proportion of LOC and over-steering among cars with studded tires was large (59% and 49%, respectively). It was therefore concluded that studded tires do not prevent all LOC crashes, while ESC has benefits in those crashes since this technology mostly addresses over-steering. This is also supported by the fact that the share of LOC fatal crashes is considerably lower for ESC-equipped cars. This study recommends that non-ESC cars should be fitted with studded tires if they are to be driven on roads covered by ice or snow. If the proportion of studded tires is to be decreased on Swedish roads to reduce the about of hazardous particulates especially in built up areas, from a road safety point of view it is recommended that this should be done in phase with the implementation of ESC on all passenger cars.
本研究旨在探讨钉胎在瑞典冰雪覆盖道路上致命碰撞的影响，并研究电子稳定控制系统（ESC）在冬季的额外益处。本文介绍了两项不同的研究。这两项研究都采用了诱发暴露法。在主要研究中，分析了 369 起深入研究的乘用车致命碰撞事故，以确定是否存在失去控制（LOC）。只分析了未配备 ESC 且配备了经批准的钉胎或非钉胎冬季轮胎的汽车的碰撞事故。额外的研究使用了 2003 年至 2010 年冬季期间警方报告的碰撞事故数据，涉及配备和未配备 ESC 的乘用车。虽然瑞典警方的记录不包括任何轮胎信息，但可以假设冬季期间发生的大多数碰撞事故车辆都配备了钉胎。主要研究结果表明，在冰雪覆盖的道路上发生的致命碰撞事故中，有 64%的事故 LOC 是主要因素。此外，在 82%的 LOC 碰撞事故中，乘用车在碰撞前转向过度。与非钉胎冬季轮胎相比，钉胎在冰雪覆盖道路上减少致命碰撞的效果具有统计学意义，减少了 42%。冬季在干燥或湿滑路面上的效果为负，但统计学上不显著。在额外的研究中，发现 ESC 进一步降低了受伤碰撞事故的风险 29%。在严重和致命碰撞事故中的获益略高（32%），尽管置信下限较低。尽管与非钉胎冬季轮胎相比，钉胎减少了致命碰撞事故的风险，但钉胎汽车的 LOC 和转向过度比例较大（分别为 59%和 49%）。因此，结论是钉胎并不能防止所有 LOC 碰撞事故，而 ESC 在这些碰撞事故中具有益处，因为这项技术主要针对转向过度。这也得到了一个事实的支持，即配备 ESC 的汽车发生 LOC 致命碰撞事故的比例要低得多。因此，建议在冰雪覆盖的道路上行驶的非 ESC 汽车应配备钉胎。如果要减少瑞典道路上的钉胎数量，以减少特别是在建成区的有害颗粒物的数量，从道路安全的角度来看，建议在所有乘用车上逐步实施 ESC 的同时，逐步减少钉胎的使用。
