Taghavi Afsoon, Fazeli Zeinab, Vahedi Mohsen, Baghestani Ahmad Reza, Zali Mohammad Reza, Pourhoseingholi Mohamad Amin
Department of Pathology, Research Center for Gastroenterology and Liver Diseases, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Iran.
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2011;12(9):2271-4.
Pancreatic cancer is a fatal cancer with a 5-year survival of only about 4% for all tumors. Mortality is a familiar projection to address the burden of cancers, but according to the Iranian death registry, about 20% of death statistics are still recorded in misclassified categories. The aim of this study was to estimate pancreatic cancer mortality for Iranian population, using a bayesian approach in order to revise this misclassification.
National Death Statistics reported by the Ministry of Health from 1999 to 2004, stratified by age group, sex and cause of death, were the basis for this analysis. Pancreas cancer [ICD-10; 25] were expressed as the annual mortality rates/100,000, overall, by sex and by age group (<50 and ≥50 years of age) and age standardized rate (ASR). The bayesian approach to correct and account for misclassification effects in Poisson count regression was employed with a beta prior to estimate the mortality rate by age and sex group.
According to the bayesian analysis, there were between 20 to 30 percent underreported mortality records in deaths due to pancreatic cancer and the rate decreased slightly during the years of the study.
Our findings suggest a substantial undercount of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Iranian population. Therefore policy makers who determine research and treatment priorities should note these underreported data for death rates.
胰腺癌是一种致命性癌症，所有肿瘤的5年生存率仅约为4%。死亡率是用于描述癌症负担的常见指标，但根据伊朗死亡登记处的数据，约20%的死亡统计仍被错误分类记录。本研究的目的是采用贝叶斯方法估计伊朗人群的胰腺癌死亡率，以修正这种错误分类。
本分析以1999年至2004年伊朗卫生部报告的国家死亡统计数据为基础，按年龄组、性别和死因进行分层。胰腺癌[国际疾病分类第十版（ICD - 10）；C25]以每年每10万人的死亡率表示，总体上、按性别以及按年龄组（<50岁和≥50岁）和年龄标准化率（ASR）表示。在泊松计数回归中采用贝叶斯方法校正并考虑错误分类效应，使用贝塔先验估计按年龄和性别组划分的死亡率。
根据贝叶斯分析，胰腺癌死亡的死亡率记录漏报率在20%至30%之间，且在研究期间该比率略有下降。
我们的研究结果表明，伊朗人群中胰腺癌死亡率存在大量漏报情况。因此，确定研究和治疗重点的政策制定者应注意这些漏报的死亡率数据。
