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存在错误分类情况下胃癌死亡率的贝叶斯调整

Bayesian adjustment of gastric cancer mortality rate in the presence of misclassification.

作者信息

Hajizadeh Nastaran, Pourhoseingholi Mohamad Amin, Baghestani Ahmad Reza, Abadi Alireza, Zali Mohammad Reza

机构信息

Nastaran Hajizadeh, Ahmad Reza Baghestani, Alireza Abadi, Department of Biostatistics, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran 1971653313, Iran.

出版信息

World J Gastrointest Oncol. 2017 Apr 15;9(4):160-165. doi: 10.4251/wjgo.v9.i4.160.

DOI:10.4251/wjgo.v9.i4.160
PMID:28451063
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5390301/
Abstract

AIM

To correct for misclassification error in registering causes of death in Iran death registry using Bayesian method.

METHODS

National death statistic from 2006 to 2010 for gastric cancer which reported annually by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education included in this study. To correct the rate of gastric cancer mortality with reassigning the deaths due to gastric cancer that registered as cancer without detail, a Bayesian method was implemented with Poisson count regression and beta prior for misclassified parameter, assuming 20% misclassification in registering causes of death in Iran.

RESULTS

Registered mortality due to gastric cancer from 2006 to 2010 was considered in this study. According to the Bayesian re-estimate, about 3%-7% of deaths due to gastric cancer have registered as cancer without mentioning details. It makes an undercount of gastric cancer mortality in Iranian population. The number and age standardized rate of gastric cancer death is estimated to be 5805 (10.17 per 100000 populations), 5862 (10.51 per 100000 populations), 5731 (10.23 per 100000 populations), 5946 (10.44 per 100000 populations), and 6002 (10.35 per 100000 populations), respectively for years 2006 to 2010.

CONCLUSION

There is an undercount in gastric cancer mortality in Iranian registered data that researchers and authorities should notice that in sequential estimations and policy making.

摘要

目的

采用贝叶斯方法校正伊朗死亡登记处死因登记中的错误分类误差。

方法

本研究纳入了2006年至2010年由卫生和医学教育部每年报告的胃癌国家死亡统计数据。为了校正胃癌死亡率，通过重新分配那些登记为癌症但无详细信息的胃癌死亡病例，采用贝叶斯方法，利用泊松计数回归和对错误分类参数的贝塔先验分布，假设伊朗死因登记中有20%的错误分类。

结果

本研究考虑了2006年至2010年登记的胃癌死亡率。根据贝叶斯重新估计，约3%-7%的胃癌死亡登记为癌症但未提及详细信息。这导致伊朗人群胃癌死亡率的漏报。2006年至2010年各年胃癌死亡人数及年龄标准化率估计分别为5805例（每10万人中10.17例）、5862例（每10万人中10.51例）、5731例（每10万人中10.23例）、5946例（每10万人中10.44例）和6002例（每10万人中10.35例）。

结论

伊朗登记数据中胃癌死亡率存在漏报情况，研究人员和当局在后续估计和政策制定中应予以注意。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1bb1/5390301/129376d346b1/WJGO-9-160-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1bb1/5390301/3aeaf229638c/WJGO-9-160-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1bb1/5390301/129376d346b1/WJGO-9-160-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1bb1/5390301/3aeaf229638c/WJGO-9-160-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1bb1/5390301/129376d346b1/WJGO-9-160-g002.jpg

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