Division of Emergency Medicine, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
J Interpers Violence. 2012 Aug;27(12):2303-21. doi: 10.1177/0886260511433515. Epub 2012 Feb 10.
Canada has implemented legislation covering all firearms since 1977 and presents a model to examine incremental firearms control. The effect of legislation on homicide by firearm and the subcategory, spousal homicide, is controversial and has not been well studied to date. Legislative effects on homicide and spousal homicide were analyzed using data obtained from Statistics Canada from 1974 to 2008. Three statistical methods were applied to search for any associated effects of firearms legislation. Interrupted time series regression, ARIMA, and Joinpoint analysis were performed. Neither were any significant beneficial associations between firearms legislation and homicide or spousal homicide rates found after the passage of three Acts by the Canadian Parliament--Bill C-51 (1977), C-17 (1991), and C-68 (1995)--nor were effects found after the implementation of licensing in 2001 and the registration of rifles and shotguns in 2003. After the passage of C-68, a decrease in the rate of the decline of homicide by firearm was found by interrupted regression. Joinpoint analysis also found an increasing trend in homicide by firearm rate post the enactment of the licensing portion of C-68. Other factors found to be associated with homicide rates were median age, unemployment, immigration rates, percentage of population in low-income bracket, Gini index of income equality, population per police officer, and incarceration rate. This study failed to demonstrate a beneficial association between legislation and firearm homicide rates between 1974 and 2008.
加拿大自 1977 年以来已经实施了涵盖所有枪支的立法，并为研究逐步加强枪支管制提供了一个范例。立法对枪支凶杀案及其子类别的配偶凶杀案的影响存在争议，迄今为止，这方面的研究还不够充分。本研究使用加拿大统计局 1974 年至 2008 年的数据，分析了立法对凶杀案和配偶凶杀案的影响。采用三种统计方法来寻找与枪支立法相关的影响。进行了中断时间序列回归、ARIMA 和 Joinpoint 分析。在加拿大议会通过三项法案（1977 年的 C-51 法案、1991 年的 C-17 法案和 1995 年的 C-68 法案）之后，以及在 2001 年实施许可制度和 2003 年登记步枪和猎枪之后，都没有发现枪支立法与凶杀案或配偶凶杀案发生率之间存在任何显著的有益关联。在 C-68 法案通过之后，通过中断回归发现，枪支凶杀案的下降率有所下降。Joinpoint 分析还发现，自 C-68 法案中许可部分生效以来，枪支凶杀案的发生率呈上升趋势。与凶杀案率相关的其他因素包括中值年龄、失业率、移民率、低收入阶层人口比例、收入均等基尼指数、每万名警察人数和监禁率。本研究未能证明 1974 年至 2008 年期间立法与枪支凶杀案率之间存在有益关联。
