Wang Youxin, Wang Wei
Capital Medical University, Beijing, People's Republic of China Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China.
Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia Capital Medical University, Beijing, People's Republic of China Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, People's Republic of China
Asia Pac J Public Health. 2015 Mar;27(2):NP223-9. doi: 10.1177/1010539512436874. Epub 2012 Feb 16.
Increasing incidence of thyroid cancer has been observed in some countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and so on. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the incidence of thyroid cancer in Shanghai, China, from 1983 to 2007. The results showed that there were 2 distinct slopes: in men, representing a significant annual percentage change (APC) of 2.6% from 1983 to 2000 (P < .001) followed by a sharp APC of 14.4% (P < .001), and in women, representing a significant APC of 4.9% from 1983 to 2003 (P < .001) followed by a sharp APC of 19.9% (P = .001). The sharp increase in thyroid cancer occurred 5 and 8 years after the iodine supplementation by salt, for men and women, respectively, suggesting that either the developed screening techniques or iodine supplementation might have contributed to the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer. The burden of thyroid cancer cases is expected to be substantial, based on predictions through 2020.
在美国、英国、法国等一些国家，甲状腺癌的发病率一直在上升。采用Joinpoint回归分析了1983年至2007年中国上海甲状腺癌的发病率。结果显示有两个不同的斜率：在男性中，1983年至2000年的年百分比变化（APC）显著为2.6%（P<.001），随后急剧上升至14.4%（P<.001）；在女性中，1983年至2003年的APC显著为4.9%（P<.001），随后急剧上升至19.9%（P=.001）。男性和女性甲状腺癌的急剧增加分别发生在食盐加碘后的5年和8年，这表明先进的筛查技术或食盐加碘可能是甲状腺癌发病率迅速上升的原因。根据到2020年的预测，甲状腺癌病例的负担预计会相当大。
