Nancy University Hospital - Clinical Epidemiology and Evaluation, France.
Mult Scler. 2012 Sep;18(9):1244-50. doi: 10.1177/1352458512437811. Epub 2012 Feb 21.
The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the Lorraine region, in France.
Data from three sources - Regional Health Insurance System, medical records departments and the Lorraine registry of MS - and a capture-recapture method with log-linear models were used to estimate the prevalence and incidence of MS.
We identified 7193 records of reported MS corresponding to 4299 unique suspected cases of MS existing on 31 December 2008, in Lorraine. On the basis of the 4001 validated cases, the observed crude prevalence of MS was 170.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval [CI]: 165.7; 176.3), and the observed annual crude incidence of MS was 4.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 3.6; 5.4). With the capture-recapture method, the estimated prevalence of MS was 4405.7 (95% CI: 4261.5; 4629.7), so an estimated 405 cases were not identified by the three sources. The estimated prevalence was 188.2 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 182.7; 193.8), and the estimated annual incidence was 8.5 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 7.3; 9.7).
The capture-recapture method allowed us to estimate an additional 10.1% of unobserved prevalent cases and to anticipate 47.5% of unobserved incident cases.
本研究旨在评估法国洛林地区多发性硬化症（MS）的患病率和发病率。
我们使用了三种来源的数据——地区健康保险系统、医疗记录部门和洛林 MS 登记处，以及对数线性模型的捕获-再捕获方法，来估计 MS 的患病率和发病率。
我们在洛林地区共发现了 7193 例报告的 MS 记录，对应于 2008 年 12 月 31 日存在的 4299 例独特的疑似 MS 病例。基于 4001 例确诊病例，MS 的观察粗患病率为 170.9 例/10 万居民（95%置信区间[CI]：165.7；176.3），观察到的 MS 年粗发病率为 4.4 例/10 万居民（95%CI：3.6；5.4）。通过捕获-再捕获方法，估计的 MS 患病率为 4405.7（95%CI：4261.5；4629.7），因此有 405 例病例未被三种来源识别。估计的患病率为 188.2 例/10 万居民（95%CI：182.7；193.8），估计的年发病率为 8.5 例/10 万居民（95%CI：7.3；9.7）。
捕获-再捕获方法使我们能够估计另外 10.1%的未观察到的现患病例，并预测 47.5%的未观察到的发病病例。
