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过去 25 年中日本民众对核电和其他风险的感知。

Perceived risk of nuclear power and other risks during the last 25 years in Japan.

机构信息

Research Center for Radiation Protection, National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Chiba 263-8555, Japan.

出版信息

Health Phys. 2012 Apr;102(4):384-90. doi: 10.1097/HP.0b013e31823abef2.

DOI:10.1097/HP.0b013e31823abef2
PMID:22378199
Abstract

The present study described the results of three "fixed-point" surveys on perceived risk related to a list of social and individual risk events during 25 years in Japan. Female clerical staff and researchers were asked to rank 30 items related to various types of technologies and human activities according to their subjective judgments on the order of perceived magnitude of risk in 1983, 1992, and 2007. A similar survey was undertaken for Japanese citizens using web-based questionnaires in 2007. In general, the risk perceptions of the Japanese people, irrespective of gender, age, and occupation, have been uniform during the last 25 years. The female clerical staffs have consistently judged nuclear power as most risky during the last 25 years, whereas researchers' judgment fluctuated with events such as the Chernobyl accident. The ranking of the risk of motor vehicles fell during the 25-y period, whereas those of health risks with food preservatives, x-rays, and antibiotics rose transiently in the 1992 survey. During the 15 years from 1992 to 2007, people tended to learn how to accommodate themselves to these technologies with low risks in exchange for high benefits, except in the case of nuclear power. Nuclear power was regarded as a high-risk item by the Japanese even before the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011. This partly explains that the crisis inevitably provokes further high risk perception in Japan, although the overall health threat to the human population in Japan is estimated to be relatively limited so far.

摘要

本研究描述了在日本 25 年期间,针对一系列社会和个人风险事件,进行三次“定点”感知风险调查的结果。1983 年、1992 年和 2007 年,要求女性文员和研究人员根据他们对 30 项与各种类型技术和人类活动相关的项目的主观判断顺序,对感知风险的大小进行排名。2007 年,还对日本公民使用基于网络的问卷调查进行了类似的调查。总的来说,过去 25 年来,日本人民的风险感知不论性别、年龄和职业都是一致的。过去 25 年来,女性文员一直认为核能风险最大,而研究人员的判断则随着切尔诺贝利事故等事件而波动。机动车辆的风险排名在 25 年期间下降,而食品防腐剂、X 射线和抗生素的健康风险排名在 1992 年的调查中短暂上升。在 1992 年至 2007 年的 15 年期间,人们倾向于学习如何适应这些低风险高收益的技术,除了核能。即使在 2011 年 3 月福岛核电站事故之前,核能在日本就被视为高风险项目。这部分解释了危机不可避免地会在日本引发更高的风险感知,尽管到目前为止,日本人口的整体健康威胁估计相对有限。

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