环境持久性在病原体传播中的作用：一种数学建模方法。
Role of environmental persistence in pathogen transmission: a mathematical modeling approach.
作者信息
Breban Romulus
机构信息
Unité d'Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes, Institut Pasteur, 75724 Paris, France.
出版信息
J Math Biol. 2013 Feb;66(3):535-46. doi: 10.1007/s00285-012-0520-2. Epub 2012 Mar 1.
Abstract
Although diseases such as influenza, tuberculosis and SARS are transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, most modeling work on these topics is based on the concepts of infectious contact and direct transmission. In this paper we use a paradigm model to show that environmental transmission appears like direct transmission in the case where the pathogen persists little time in the environment. Furthermore, we formulate conditions for the validity of this modeling approximation and we illustrate them numerically for the cases of cholera and influenza. According to our results based on recently published parameter estimates, the direct transmission approximation fails for both cholera and influenza. While environmental transmission is typically chosen over direct transmission in modeling cholera, this is not the case for influenza.
摘要
尽管诸如流感、结核病和非典等疾病是通过环境介导机制传播的，但关于这些主题的大多数建模工作都是基于感染接触和直接传播的概念。在本文中，我们使用一个范式模型来表明，在病原体在环境中持续时间很短的情况下，环境传播看起来像直接传播。此外，我们制定了这种建模近似有效性的条件，并针对霍乱和流感的情况进行了数值说明。根据我们基于最近公布的参数估计得出的结果，直接传播近似对于霍乱和流感都不成立。虽然在霍乱建模中通常选择环境传播而非直接传播，但流感并非如此。
相似文献
1
Role of environmental persistence in pathogen transmission: a mathematical modeling approach.
J Math Biol. 2013 Feb;66(3):535-46. doi: 10.1007/s00285-012-0520-2. Epub 2012 Mar 1.
2
Cholera Transmission in Ouest Department of Haiti: Dynamic Modeling and the Future of the Epidemic.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2015 Oct 21;9(10):e0004153. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004153. eCollection 2015.
3
Modeling cholera dynamics at multiple scales: environmental evolution, between-host transmission, and within-host interaction.
Math Biosci Eng. 2019 Jan 15;16(2):782-812. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019037.
4
A mathematical framework for estimating pathogen transmission fitness and inoculum size using data from a competitive mixtures animal model.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Apr;7(4):e1002026. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002026. Epub 2011 Apr 28.
5
Transmission dynamics of cholera with hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios: mathematical modelling and control strategies.
Math Biosci Eng. 2019 May 16;16(5):4339-4358. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019216.
6
Staying Alive: Vibrio cholerae's Cycle of Environmental Survival, Transmission, and Dissemination.
Microbiol Spectr. 2016 Apr;4(2). doi: 10.1128/microbiolspec.VMBF-0015-2015.
7
Two dynamical models for cholera.
Theor Biol Forum. 2016 Jan 1;109(1-2):131-148. doi: 10.19272/201611402010.
8
Infectious diseases. Taming pathogens: an elegant idea, but does it work?
Science. 2003 May 30;300(5624):1362-4. doi: 10.1126/science.300.5624.1362.
9
A cholera transmission model incorporating the impact of medical resources.
Math Biosci Eng. 2019 Jun 6;16(5):5226-5246. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019261.
10
Global dynamics of cholera models with differential infectivity.
Math Biosci. 2011 Dec;234(2):118-26. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2011.09.003. Epub 2011 Oct 2.
引用本文的文献
1
Homogenization Reveals Large-Scale Dynamics in the Spread of Chronic Wasting Disease.
Bull Math Biol. 2025 May 20;87(6):79. doi: 10.1007/s11538-025-01456-8.
2
The transmission mechanism theory of disease dynamics: Its aims, assumptions and limitations.
Infect Dis Model. 2022 Dec 21;8(1):122-144. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.12.001. eCollection 2023 Mar.
3
Dilution of Epidemic Potential of Environmentally Transmitted Infectious Diseases for Species with Partially Overlapping Habitats.
Am Nat. 2022 Feb;199(2):E43-E56. doi: 10.1086/717413. Epub 2021 Dec 15.
4
Environmental suitability of bare-nosed wombat burrows for .
Int J Parasitol Parasites Wildl. 2021 Aug 10;16:37-47. doi: 10.1016/j.ijppaw.2021.08.003. eCollection 2021 Dec.
5
Soil Reservoir Dynamics of , the Causative Agent of Snake Fungal Disease.
J Fungi (Basel). 2021 Jun 8;7(6):461. doi: 10.3390/jof7060461.
6
Microbial Exchange via Fomites and Implications for Human Health.
Curr Pollut Rep. 2019;5(4):198-213. doi: 10.1007/s40726-019-00123-6. Epub 2019 Aug 31.
7
The roles of environmental variation and parasite survival in virulence-transmission relationships.
R Soc Open Sci. 2021 Jun 2;8(6):210088. doi: 10.1098/rsos.210088.
8
Inferring environmental transmission using phylodynamics: a case-study using simulated evolution of an enteric pathogen.
J R Soc Interface. 2021 Jun;18(179):20210041. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2021.0041. Epub 2021 Jun 9.
9
Variation in microparasite free-living survival and indirect transmission can modulate the intensity of emerging outbreaks.
Sci Rep. 2020 Nov 27;10(1):20786. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-77048-4.
10
Ecological drivers of African swine fever virus persistence in wild boar populations: Insight for control.
Ecol Evol. 2020 Feb 18;10(6):2846-2859. doi: 10.1002/ece3.6100. eCollection 2020 Mar.
本文引用的文献
1
The role of particle size in aerosolised pathogen transmission: a review.
J Infect. 2011 Jan;62(1):1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jinf.2010.11.010. Epub 2010 Nov 19.
2
Informing optimal environmental influenza interventions: how the host, agent, and environment alter dominant routes of transmission.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2010 Oct 28;6(10):e1000969. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000969.
3
A general multi-strain model with environmental transmission: invasion conditions for the disease-free and endemic states.
J Theor Biol. 2010 Jun 7;264(3):729-36. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.03.005. Epub 2010 Mar 6.
4
Reconstructing influenza incidence by deconvolution of daily mortality time series.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Dec 22;106(51):21825-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0902958106. Epub 2009 Dec 18.
5
Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models.
PLoS One. 2009 Oct 20;4(10):e7426. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0007426.
6
Environmental transmission of low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses and its implications for pathogen invasion.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Jun 23;106(25):10365-9. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0809026106. Epub 2009 Jun 3.
7
Dynamics and control of infections transmitted from person to person through the environment.
Am J Epidemiol. 2009 Jul 15;170(2):257-65. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwp116. Epub 2009 May 27.
8
Water-borne transmission drives avian influenza dynamics in wild birds: the case of the 2005-2006 epidemics in the Camargue area.
Infect Genet Evol. 2009 Sep;9(5):800-5. doi: 10.1016/j.meegid.2009.04.009. Epub 2009 Apr 18.
9
The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.
PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 Apr;5(4):e1000346. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000346. Epub 2009 Apr 10.
10
Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics.
Nature. 2008 Aug 14;454(7206):877-80. doi: 10.1038/nature07084.
Zotero 插件