Population Studies Center, and Department of Sociology, University of Michigan, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248, USA.
Demography. 2012 May;49(2):677-98. doi: 10.1007/s13524-012-0097-9.
Many scholars have offered structural and ideational explanations for the fertility changes occurring around the world. This paper focuses on the influence of developmental idealism-a schema or set of beliefs endorsing development, fertility change, and causal connections between development and fertility. Developmental idealism is argued to be an important force affecting both population policy and the fertility behavior of ordinary people. We present new survey data from ordinary people in six countries-Argentina, China, Egypt, Iran, Nepal, and the United States-about the extent to which developmental idealism is known and believed. We ask individuals if they believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development is a causal force in changing fertility levels, and that fertility declines enhance the standard of living and intergenerational relations. We also ask people about their expectations concerning future trends in fertility in their countries and whether they approve or disapprove of the trends they expect. The data show widespread linkage in the minds of ordinary people between fertility and development. Large fractions of people in these six settings believe that fertility and development are correlated, that development reduces fertility, and that declines in fertility foster development. Many also expect and endorse future declines in fertility.
许多学者对世界各地的生育率变化提供了结构和观念上的解释。本文关注发展理想主义的影响——一种支持发展、生育率变化以及发展与生育率之间因果关系的模式或信念体系。发展理想主义被认为是影响人口政策和普通人生育行为的重要力量。我们提出了来自六个国家（阿根廷、中国、埃及、伊朗、尼泊尔和美国）的普通人的新调查数据，这些数据涉及发展理想主义的知晓和信仰程度。我们询问个人他们是否相信生育率和发展是相关的，发展是改变生育率水平的因果力量，以及生育率下降是否提高了生活水平和代际关系。我们还询问人们对他们国家未来生育率趋势的预期，以及他们是否赞成或反对他们所预期的趋势。这些数据表明，普通民众的思维中普遍存在生育率和发展之间的联系。这六个国家的很大一部分人认为生育率和发展是相关的，发展降低了生育率，生育率的下降促进了发展。许多人也预计并支持未来生育率的下降。
