Lavely W, Freedman R
Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle 98195.
Demography. 1990 Aug;27(3):357-67.
Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale's m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun.
在中国大规模计划生育项目启动之前，教育和城市化与城乡地区的婚内生育率均呈负相关。我们认为，受教育程度较高的城市阶层较早使用避孕措施是观察到的生育率差异的一个合理原因，因为其他直接影响因素不太可能导致这种差异。作为假定的生育控制指标，科尔的m值表明城市和受教育程度较高阶层的生育控制开始得较早。然而，教育和城市精英阶层在计划生育项目实施之前就已出现的生育控制现象，并没有削弱中国强有力的计划生育项目一旦启动后对生育率产生的巨大影响。
