CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Black Mountain, Clunies Ross Road, Canberra, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2012 Jun;26(3):397-407. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2012.01841.x. Epub 2012 Apr 12.
The expansion of protected areas is a critical component of strategies to promote the continued existence of biodiversity (i.e., life at all levels of biological organization) as climate changes, but scientific, social, and economic uncertainties associated with climate change are some of the major obstacles preventing such expansion. New models of climate change and species distribution and new methods of conservation planning now make it possible to explore the uncertainties associated with climate changes and species responses. Yet few reliable estimates of the costs of expanding protected areas and methods for determining these costs exist, largely because of the many (and uncertain) determinants of these costs. We developed a cost-accounting model to estimate the range in costs of various options for expanding protected areas and to explore the variables that drive these costs. Model development was informed by an existing plan to expand protected areas in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa to address species conservation under a scenario of climate change. The 50-year present value of total costs varied from US$260 million ($1077/ha) for an off-reserve option that involves agreements with landowners and no compensation of forgone production and associated revenue to $1020 million ($4228/ha) for an on-reserve option that involves land acquisition and protection. The costs of acquiring land or compensating landowners for forgone production and development opportunities were the major drivers of the total costs across all options because most of the area identified in the protected-area expansion plan consisted of urban and high-quality agricultural lands. Total costs were also affected by changes in protected area extent and discount rate. Model-generated outputs such as these may be useful for informing implementation strategies and the allocation of future efforts in monitoring, data collection, and model development.
保护地扩张是促进生物多样性（即生物组织各级别的生命）持续存在的策略的关键组成部分，因为气候变化，但与气候变化相关的科学、社会和经济不确定性是阻止这种扩张的主要障碍之一。新的气候变化和物种分布模型以及新的保护规划方法现在使得探索与气候变化和物种响应相关的不确定性成为可能。然而，扩大保护区的成本的可靠估计和确定这些成本的方法很少，主要是因为这些成本的许多（和不确定）决定因素。我们开发了一种成本核算模型，以估计扩大保护区的各种选择的成本范围，并探讨推动这些成本的变量。模型的开发是基于南非开普花卉地区扩大保护区的现有计划，以应对气候变化情景下的物种保护。50 年的总成本现值从 2.6 亿美元（每公顷 1077 美元）的非保留区选项变化到 10.2 亿美元（每公顷 4228 美元）的保留区选项，保留区选项涉及土地收购和保护。获取土地或补偿土地所有者因放弃生产和发展机会而产生的成本是所有选项总成本的主要驱动因素，因为保护区扩张计划中确定的大部分区域都是城市和高质量农业用地。总成本还受到保护区范围和贴现率变化的影响。模型生成的输出（如这些）可能有助于为实施战略和未来监测、数据收集和模型开发工作的分配提供信息。
