Estes Lyndon D, Paroz Lydie-Line, Bradley Bethany A, Green Jonathan M H, Hole David G, Holness Stephen, Ziv Guy, Oppenheimer Michael G, Wilcove David S
Program in Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, U.S.A.; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08544, U.S.A..
Conserv Biol. 2014 Apr;28(2):427-37. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12205. Epub 2013 Dec 26.
Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning.
许多与生物多样性相关的气候变化影响研究都集中在对物种和生态系统的直接影响上。人们对人类应对气候变化影响的努力可能产生的潜在生态后果关注较少，而这些后果可能等同于或超过气候变化对生物多样性的直接影响。人类最重要的应对措施之一可能是通过土地农业利用方式的变化来介导的。随着农民调整他们的做法以适应气候变化，他们可能会增加对一些对保护至关重要的地区（保护地）的压力，而减轻对其他地区的压力。我们量化了南非保护地的农业利用可能如何因气候变化而改变。我们假设一个地区被耕种的概率与这样做的经济效益相关，用土地生产力值来代表生产效益，用地形崎岖度作为与机械可耕性相关成本的代理。我们使用DSSAT4.5模型和36种作物 - 气候响应情景计算了关键保护地当前和未来的玉米和小麦产量值。由于其位于崎岖地形中，大多数保护地目前的农业利用价值较低，预计未来仍将如此。然而，预计有几个地区将保持或获得较高的农业利用价值，因此可能面临近期或未来转为农田的风险。相反，预计一些地区的农业利用价值会下降，因此可能更容易防止其转变用途。我们的研究提供了一种近似但易于转移的方法，可将人类对气候变化的潜在应对措施纳入保护规划。
