Agay-Shay Keren, Friger Michael, Linn Shai, Peled Ammatzia, Amitai Yona, Peretz Chava
University of Haifa, School of Public Health, Faculty of Social Welfare and Health Sciences, Mount Carmel, Israel.
Birth Defects Res A Clin Mol Teratol. 2012 Jun;94(6):438-48. doi: 10.1002/bdra.23010. Epub 2012 Apr 26.
BACKGROUND Congenital malformations (CMs) are a leading cause of infant disability. Geophysical patterns such as 2-year, yearly, half-year, 3-month, and lunar cycles regulate much of the temporal biology of all life on Earth and may affect birth and birth outcomes in humans. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate and compare trends and periodicity in total births and CM conceptions in two Israeli populations. METHODS Poisson nonlinear models (polynomial) were applied to study and compare trends and geophysical periodicity cycles of weekly births and weekly prevalence rate of CM (CMPR), in a time-series design of conception date within and between Jews and Muslims. The population included all live births and stillbirths (n = 823,966) and CM (three anatomic systems, eight CM groups [n = 2193]) in Israel during 2000 to 2006. Data were obtained from the Ministry of Health. RESULTS We describe the trend and periodicity cycles for total birth conceptions. Of eight groups of CM, periodicity cycles were statistically significant in four CM groups for either Jews or Muslims. Lunar month and biennial periodicity cycles not previously investigated in the literature were found to be statistically significant. Biennial cycle was significant in total births (Jews and Muslims) and syndactyly (Muslims), whereas lunar month cycle was significant in total births (Muslims) and atresia of small intestine (Jews). CONCLUSION We encourage others to use the method we describe as an important tool to investigate the effects of different geophysical cycles on human health and pregnancy outcomes, especially CM, and to compare between populations.
背景 先天性畸形(CMs)是婴儿残疾的主要原因。地球物理模式,如两年、一年、半年、三个月和农历周期,调节着地球上所有生命的大部分时间生物学规律,可能会影响人类的出生及出生结局。因此,本研究的目的是评估和比较以色列两个群体中总出生数和CMs受孕的趋势及周期性。方法 采用泊松非线性模型(多项式),在犹太人和穆斯林群体内部及之间,以受孕日期的时间序列设计,研究和比较每周出生数的趋势及地球物理周期以及CM的每周患病率(CMPR)。该人群包括2000年至2006年期间以色列的所有活产和死产(n = 823,966)以及CM(三个解剖系统,八个CM组 [n = 2193])。数据来自卫生部。结果 我们描述了总出生受孕的趋势和周期。在八组CM中,犹太人和穆斯林的四个CM组的周期在统计学上具有显著性。发现文献中先前未研究过的农历月和两年周期在统计学上具有显著性。两年周期在总出生数(犹太人和穆斯林)和并指(穆斯林)中具有显著性,而农历月周期在总出生数(穆斯林)和小肠闭锁(犹太人)中具有显著性。结论 我们鼓励其他人使用我们描述的方法,作为一种重要工具来研究不同地球物理周期对人类健康和妊娠结局(尤其是CM)的影响,并在不同人群之间进行比较。