Department of Public Health, Chung Shan Medical University, Taichung 40201, Taiwan, ROC.
Sci Total Environ. 2012 Aug 1;431:385-91. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2012.05.012. Epub 2012 Jun 15.
The purpose of this study was to investigate the transmission dynamic modeling of dengue fever in subtropical Taiwan by the contributing temperature-dependent entomological parameters of Aedes aegypti. A vector-host transmission model was used to explore the temperature variation of pre-adult mosquito maturation, oviposition rate, adult mosquito death rate, and virus incubation rate in the mosquito. Sensitivity analysis, by transmissible biting rate and the initial mosquito population, was adapted to observe features of the epidemic. This study showed that the entomological parameter estimates are positively correlated with a gradual temperature increase, but not with pre-adult mosquito maturation rate and mosquito death rate, indicating the limitation of pre-adult mosquito maturation rate. Results show that the temperature climate factor was indeed important and influenced the dynamic modeling of the vector-host interaction. Results from our simulation also suggest that the greatest risk of dengue transmission occurs at temperatures equal to 28 °C. In the future, these results could be used for control measures modeling and cost-effectiveness analysis.
本研究旨在通过与登革热传播有关的温度依赖型埃及伊蚊媒介生物学参数，来探讨亚热带台湾登革热的传播动态模型。利用媒介-宿主传播模型来探讨在蚊子中，预成蚊成熟、产卵率、成蚊死亡率和病毒潜伏期随温度的变化。通过传染率和初始蚊群的敏感性分析，来观察传染病的特征。本研究表明，昆虫学参数的估计值与逐渐升高的温度呈正相关，但与预成蚊成熟率和蚊死亡率无关，表明预成蚊成熟率有限。结果表明，气候温度因素确实很重要，并影响媒介-宿主相互作用的动态建模。我们的模拟结果还表明，在温度等于 28°C 时，登革热传播的风险最大。未来，这些结果可用于控制措施建模和成本效益分析。
