Barbazan P, Guiserix M, Boonyuan W, Tuntaprasart W, Pontier D, Gonzalez J-P
Institute for Research Development, UMR 190 Emerging Viral Pathogens, Centre of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Med Vet Entomol. 2010 Mar;24(1):66-73. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2915.2009.00848.x.
The main entomological parameters involved in the rate of dengue virus transmission include the longevity of female mosquitoes, the time interval between bites and the extrinsic incubation period of the virus. Field and laboratory data provide estimates for these parameters, but their interactions with other factors (e.g. host population density and environmental parameters) make their integration into a transmission model quite complex. To estimate the impact of these parameters on transmission, we developed a model of virus transmission by a vector population which predicts the number of potentially infective bites under a range of temperatures and entomological parameters, including the daily survival rate of females, the interval between bites and the extrinsic incubation period. Results show that in a stable population, an increase in mosquito longevity disproportionately enhances the number of potential transmissions (e.g. by as much as five times when the survival rate rises from 0.80 to 0.95). Halving the length of the biting interval with a 10- degrees C rise in temperature increases the transmission rate by at least 2.4 times. Accordingly, the model can predict changes in dengue transmission associated with short-term variation in seasonal temperature and also with potentially long-lasting increases in global temperatures.
登革热病毒传播速率所涉及的主要昆虫学参数包括雌蚊寿命、叮咬间隔时间以及病毒的外在潜伏期。野外和实验室数据提供了这些参数的估计值，但它们与其他因素（如宿主种群密度和环境参数）的相互作用使得将其整合到传播模型中变得相当复杂。为了估计这些参数对传播的影响，我们开发了一个由媒介种群进行病毒传播的模型，该模型可预测在一系列温度和昆虫学参数（包括雌蚊的每日存活率、叮咬间隔时间和外在潜伏期）下潜在感染性叮咬的数量。结果表明，在稳定种群中，蚊子寿命的增加会不成比例地提高潜在传播的数量（例如，当存活率从0.80提高到0.95时，可能会增加多达五倍）。随着温度升高10摄氏度，将叮咬间隔时间减半会使传播速率至少提高2.4倍。因此，该模型可以预测与季节性温度短期变化以及全球温度潜在长期升高相关的登革热传播变化。
