National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Preparedness and Response Unit, BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Health Policy. 2013 Jan;109(1):52-62. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2012.05.007. Epub 2012 Jun 27.
Mathematical models are used to explore various possible scenarios with regard to an influenza pandemic. We studied the ranges of parameter values in modelling studies on preparedness prior to 2009 in relation to the estimated parameter values of the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic.
We conducted two systematic literature searches, one aimed at epidemic parameter values that were used in pre-2009 pandemic influenza models, and the other aimed at estimates of epidemic variables from data collected during the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic. The range of parameter values used to inform models was broad and covered the range of estimates of these parameters inferred from the influenza A(H1N1) 2009 pandemic.
The current practice of selecting a range of plausible parameter values for influenza works well for modelling scenarios where effects of different interventions are explored to guide public health decision makers. To narrow down this range of plausible parameter values to the actual value during a pandemic, using incoming data, real-time estimation might provide an additional benefit.
数学模型被用于探索与流感大流行相关的各种可能情况。我们研究了 2009 年之前流感大流行防范建模研究中的参数值范围，以及与 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行的估计参数值的关系。
我们进行了两次系统文献检索，一次针对 2009 年之前流感大流行模型中使用的流行参数值，另一次针对从 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行期间收集的数据中推断出的流行变量的估计值。用于为模型提供信息的参数值范围很广，涵盖了从 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行推断出的这些参数的估计值范围。
当前，为了探索不同干预措施的效果以指导公共卫生决策者，选择一系列合理的流感参数值的做法在建模方面效果良好。为了在大流行期间将这个合理的参数值范围缩小到实际值，可以使用实时估计方法来提供额外的好处。
