National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Centre for Infectious Disease Control, Bilthoven, 3720, BA, The Netherlands.
BMC Public Health. 2012 Oct 12;12:870. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-12-870.
Health care planning for pandemic influenza is a challenging task which requires predictive models by which the impact of different response strategies can be evaluated. However, current preparedness plans and simulations exercises, as well as freely available simulation models previously made for policy makers, do not explicitly address the availability of health care resources or determine the impact of shortages on public health. Nevertheless, the feasibility of health systems to implement response measures or interventions described in plans and trained in exercises depends on the available resource capacity. As part of the AsiaFluCap project, we developed a comprehensive and flexible resource modelling tool to support public health officials in understanding and preparing for surges in resource demand during future pandemics.
The AsiaFluCap Simulator is a combination of a resource model containing 28 health care resources and an epidemiological model. The tool was built in MS Excel© and contains a user-friendly interface which allows users to select mild or severe pandemic scenarios, change resource parameters and run simulations for one or multiple regions. Besides epidemiological estimations, the simulator provides indications on resource gaps or surpluses, and the impact of shortages on public health for each selected region. It allows for a comparative analysis of the effects of resource availability and consequences of different strategies of resource use, which can provide guidance on resource prioritising and/or mobilisation. Simulation results are displayed in various tables and graphs, and can also be easily exported to GIS software to create maps for geographical analysis of the distribution of resources.
The AsiaFluCap Simulator is freely available software (http://www.cdprg.org) which can be used by policy makers, policy advisors, donors and other stakeholders involved in preparedness for providing evidence based and illustrative information on health care resource capacities during future pandemics. The tool can inform both preparedness plans and simulation exercises and can help increase the general understanding of dynamics in resource capacities during a pandemic. The combination of a mathematical model with multiple resources and the linkage to GIS for creating maps makes the tool unique compared to other available software.
大流行性流感的医疗保健规划是一项具有挑战性的任务，需要预测模型来评估不同应对策略的影响。然而，当前的防备计划和模拟演习，以及之前为政策制定者提供的免费模拟模型，都没有明确解决医疗保健资源的可用性问题，也没有确定资源短缺对公共卫生的影响。尽管如此，医疗系统实施计划中描述的应对措施或干预措施的可行性，或者在演习中接受培训的可行性，取决于可用资源的能力。作为亚洲流感 cap 项目的一部分，我们开发了一个全面灵活的资源建模工具，以支持公共卫生官员了解和准备未来大流行期间资源需求的激增。
亚洲流感 cap 模拟器是一个包含 28 种医疗保健资源的资源模型和一个流行病学模型的组合。该工具是在 MS Excel©中构建的，具有用户友好的界面，允许用户选择轻度或重度大流行情景，更改资源参数并为一个或多个地区运行模拟。除了流行病学估计外，模拟器还提供了资源缺口或过剩的指示，以及资源短缺对每个选定地区公共卫生的影响。它允许对资源可用性的影响和不同资源使用策略的后果进行比较分析，从而为资源优先级排序和/或动员提供指导。模拟结果显示在各种表格和图表中，也可以轻松导出到 GIS 软件中，以创建资源分布的地理分析地图。
亚洲流感 cap 模拟器是一款免费软件（http://www.cdprg.org），可由政策制定者、政策顾问、捐助者和其他参与大流行准备工作的利益攸关方使用，为未来大流行期间医疗保健资源能力提供基于证据和说明性的信息。该工具可以为准备计划和模拟演习提供信息，并有助于提高对大流行期间资源能力动态的总体认识。与其他可用软件相比，该工具将数学模型与多种资源相结合，并与 GIS 链接以创建地图，这使其具有独特性。
