School of Public Health and Social Works, Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Trop Med Int Health. 2012 Sep;17(9):1086-91. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2012.03038.x. Epub 2012 Jul 19.
To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan).
We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000-2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software.
Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000-2002, 2003-2005 and 2006-2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade.
There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.
利用地理信息系统和空间扫描统计（SaTScan）研究孟加拉国登革热（DF）传播的时空聚集性。
我们从卫生服务总局获得了孟加拉国 2000-2009 年按地区划分的每月疑似 DF 病例和死亡数据。从孟加拉国统计局管理的全国人口普查中收集了每个地区的人口和地区边界数据。为了识别 DF 传播的时空聚集，使用 SaTScan 软件进行了离散泊松模型分析。
DF 传播的时空分布在三个时期出现聚集：2000-2002 年、2003-2005 年和 2006-2009 年。达卡是所有三个时期最有可能发生 DF 的聚集区。还有其他几个地区是重要的次要聚集区。然而，过去十年中，孟加拉国 DF 的传播范围似乎有所缩小。
过去十年中，孟加拉国存在显著的 DF 时空聚集现象。我们的研究结果将促使未来的研究探索社会和生态因素如何影响 DF 的传播，这也将有助于改善孟加拉国的 DF 控制和预防计划。
