Land Dynamics Group, Wageningen University, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2012 Jun 15;100:86-95. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2012.01.022. Epub 2012 Feb 24.
Shifting societal needs drive and shape landscapes and the provision of their services. This paper presents a modelling approach to visualize the regional spatial and temporal dynamics in landscape service supply as a function of changing landscapes and societal demand. This changing demand can result from different policy targets. In this paper we conceptualise the system in which these dynamics take place by explicitly addressing (i) the multifunctional character of a landscape, (ii) the different spatial levels at which interactions between landscape service supply, demand, and land management occur, and (iii) trade-offs in service supply as a result of land management actions. Next, we translate the resulting conceptual framework into an operational model. As a demonstration, this model is applied to simulate changes in landscape service supply driven by regional policies in a rural region of the Netherlands. This application demonstrates potential trade-offs, which emerge in a spatially explicit way in the region over time. It illustrates the potential relevance of modelling landscape service dynamics for environmental management and decision making.
社会需求的转变推动和塑造了景观及其服务的提供。本文提出了一种建模方法，以可视化景观服务供应的区域时空动态，作为景观和社会需求变化的函数。这种不断变化的需求可能源于不同的政策目标。在本文中，我们通过明确解决以下问题来概念化这些动态发生的系统：（i）景观的多功能性；（ii）景观服务供应、需求和土地管理之间相互作用发生的不同空间层次；以及（iii）土地管理行动导致的服务供应权衡。接下来，我们将由此产生的概念框架转化为一个可操作的模型。作为演示，该模型应用于模拟荷兰农村地区的区域政策驱动的景观服务供应变化。该应用说明了随着时间的推移在该地区以空间显式方式出现的潜在权衡。它说明了为环境管理和决策制定而对景观服务动态进行建模的潜在相关性。
