Brehmer B
Department of Psychology, Uppsala University, Sweden.
Ergonomics. 1990 Oct-Nov;33(10-11):1231-9. doi: 10.1080/00140139008925328.
This paper argues that variable error introduces a limit to the extent to which a person can be adapted to his or her environment in general, and for the extent to which the driver can be adapted to the traffic environment in particular. This is because variable error turns what is a deterministic and stable world into an uncertain one where it is only possible to be adapted in a statistical sense. A series of experiments are then discussed. These experiments show that drivers match their utilization of perceptual information to the validity of this information, i.e., they treat uncertainty introduced by variable error in the perceptual system in the same manner as they treat uncertainty in the physical system. This supports the main hypothesis of the paper. A driver may mitigate the effects of variable error by having a safety margin, but the relation between speeds and accident rates (predicted from the current hypothesis) shows that this adaptation is not effective enough. Safety authorities may mitigate the effects of variable error by decreasing the variability of the driving environment, e.g., by introducing speed limits.
本文认为，可变误差在总体上限制了一个人适应其环境的程度，尤其限制了驾驶员适应交通环境的程度。这是因为可变误差将一个确定且稳定的世界变成了一个不确定的世界，在这个世界里，只能在统计意义上进行适应。接着讨论了一系列实验。这些实验表明，驾驶员会根据感知信息的有效性来匹配其对感知信息的利用，也就是说，他们对待感知系统中可变误差所引入的不确定性的方式，与他们对待物理系统中的不确定性的方式相同。这支持了本文的主要假设。驾驶员可以通过留出安全裕度来减轻可变误差的影响，但速度与事故率之间的关系（根据当前假设预测）表明，这种适应效果并不足够显著。安全当局可以通过降低驾驶环境的可变性来减轻可变误差的影响，例如通过设定速度限制。
