Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Miljoevej, Building 113, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark.
Waste Manag. 2012 Dec;32(12):2482-95. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2012.07.008. Epub 2012 Aug 3.
Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.
不确定性分析在生命周期评价研究中取得了重大进展。在废物管理方面，已经实施了各种方法，但缺乏对废物生命周期评价研究的不确定性进行系统分析的方法。本文的目的是：(1) 提出废物生命周期评价研究中特有的不确定性来源；(2) 选择和应用几种不确定性分析方法；(3) 开发一种用于定量评估废物管理系统生命周期评价不确定性的通用框架。所建议的方法是结合所选方法的四个步骤序列：(步骤 1) 敏感性分析，评估结果对输入不确定性的敏感性；(步骤 2) 不确定性传播，提供适当的工具来表示不确定性并计算模型结果的整体不确定性；(步骤 3) 不确定性贡献分析，量化每个参数不确定性对最终不确定性的贡献；(步骤 4) 作为一种新方法，组合敏感性分析，由于选定关键参数的变化，可视化不同选项的排名变化。这种分层方法通过仅传播最具影响力的不确定性来优化生命周期评价实践者可用的资源。
