Instituto de Investigaciones Fisicoquímicas Teóricas y Aplicadas, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, Argentina.
Epidemiol Infect. 2013 Apr;141(4):718-34. doi: 10.1017/S0950268812001380. Epub 2012 Jul 6.
Due to the current epidemiological situation of pertussis, several countries have implemented vaccination strategies that include a booster dose for adolescents. Since there is still no evidence showing that the adolescent booster has a positive effect on the most vulnerable group represented by infants, it is difficult to universalize the recommendation to include such reinforcement. In this work we present an age-structured compartmental deterministic model that considers the outstanding epidemiological features of the disease in order to assess the impact of the booster dose at age 11 years (Tdap booster) to infants. To this end, we performed different parameterizations of the model that represent distinct possible epidemiological scenarios. The results obtained show that the inclusion of a single Tdap dose at age 11 years significantly reduces the incidence of the disease within this age group, but has a very low impact on the risk group (0-1 year). An effort to improve the coverage of the first dose would have a much greater impact on infants. These results hold in the 18 scenarios considered, which demonstrates the robustness of these conclusions.
由于百日咳的当前流行病学情况，一些国家已经实施了疫苗接种策略，其中包括为青少年提供加强剂量。由于仍然没有证据表明青少年加强剂量对婴儿等最脆弱群体有积极影响，因此难以普遍建议包括这种强化。在这项工作中，我们提出了一个年龄结构的确定型 compartmental 模型，该模型考虑了该疾病的突出流行病学特征，以评估 11 岁时（Tdap 加强剂量）加强剂量对婴儿的影响。为此，我们对模型进行了不同的参数化，以代表不同的可能的流行病学情况。得到的结果表明，在 11 岁时接种一剂 Tdap 可以显著降低该年龄组的疾病发生率，但对风险组（0-1 岁）的影响非常小。努力提高第一剂的覆盖率将对婴儿产生更大的影响。这些结果在考虑的 18 种情况下都成立，这证明了这些结论的稳健性。
