Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Science. 2010 Nov 12;330(6006):982-5. doi: 10.1126/science.1194134.
The epidemiology of whooping cough (pertussis) remains enigmatic. A leading cause of infant mortality globally, its resurgence in several developed nations--despite the availability and use of vaccines for many decades--has caused alarm. We combined data from a singular natural experiment and a detailed contact network study to show that age-specific contact patterns alone can explain shifts in prevalence and age-stratified incidence in the vaccine era. The practical implications of our results are notable: Ignoring age-structured contacts is likely to result in misinterpretation of epidemiological data and potentially costly policy missteps.
百日咳（pertussis）的流行病学仍然扑朔迷离。尽管几十年来一直有疫苗可用且在使用，但这种疾病在一些发达国家的死灰复燃仍是导致婴儿死亡的主要原因之一，这引起了人们的警惕。我们结合了一个独特的自然实验和一个详细的接触网络研究的数据，表明仅特定年龄的接触模式就可以解释疫苗时代流行率和年龄分层发病率的变化。我们研究结果的实际意义是显著的：忽略年龄结构的接触很可能导致对流行病学数据的误解，并可能导致代价高昂的政策失误。
