Department of Mathematical Sciences, Saint Joseph College, West Hartford, CT 06117, USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2008 Jul;2(3):346-56. doi: 10.1080/17513750801911169.
The drinking behaviours of college students have posed significant public health concerns for several generations. However, the dynamics of campus drinking have not been analysed using mathematical models. An epidemiological model capturing the dynamics of campus drinking is used to study how the 'disease' of drinking is spread on campus. The model suggests that the reproductive numbers are not sufficient to predict whether drinking behaviour will persist on campus and that the pattern of recruiting new members plays a significant role in the reduction of campus alcohol problems. In particular, campus alcohol abuse may be reduced by minimizing the ability of problem drinkers to directly recruit non-drinkers.
大学生的饮酒行为是几代人关注的重大公共卫生问题。然而,校园饮酒的动态尚未通过数学模型进行分析。本研究采用了一种能够捕捉校园饮酒动态的流行病学模型,以研究“饮酒疾病”在校园中的传播方式。模型表明,繁殖数不足以预测校园饮酒行为是否会持续,并且招募新成员的模式在减少校园酒精问题方面起着重要作用。特别是,通过最大限度地减少问题饮酒者直接招募不饮酒者的能力,可能会减少校园酗酒。