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一个涉及人类宿主易感性、暴露和传染性差异的疟疾数学模型。

A mathematical model for malaria involving differential susceptibility, exposedness and infectivity of human host.

机构信息

INRIA-Anubis Sud-Ouest futurs, Université de Bordeaux, UFR Sciences et Modélisation, 146 rue Leo Saignat BP 26, Bordeaux Cedex, France.

出版信息

J Biol Dyn. 2009 Nov;3(6):574-98. doi: 10.1080/17513750902829393.

Abstract

The main purpose of this article is to formulate a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission of malaria that considers two host types in the human population. The first type is called "non-immune" comprising all humans who have never acquired immunity against malaria and the second type is called "semi-immune". Non-immune are divided into susceptible, exposed and infectious and semi-immune are divided into susceptible, exposed, infectious and immune. We obtain an explicit formula for the reproductive number, R(0) which is a function of the weight of the transmission semi-immune-mosquito-semi-immune, R(0a), and the weight of the transmission non-immune-mosquito-non-immune, R(0e). Then, we study the existence of endemic equilibria by using bifurcation analysis. We give a simple criterion when R(0) crosses one for forward and backward bifurcation. We explore the possibility of a control for malaria through a specific sub-group such as non-immune or semi-immune or mosquitoes.

摘要

本文的主要目的是制定一个考虑人类群体中两种宿主类型的疟疾传播确定性数学模型。第一类称为“非免疫”,包括从未获得疟疾免疫力的所有人类,第二类称为“半免疫”。非免疫人群分为易感、暴露和感染人群,半免疫人群分为易感、暴露、感染和免疫人群。我们得到了繁殖数 R(0)的显式公式,它是传播半免疫-蚊子-半免疫的权重 R(0a)和传播非免疫-蚊子-非免疫的权重 R(0e)的函数。然后,我们通过分岔分析研究了地方病平衡点的存在性。当 R(0)穿过一个向前和向后分岔的临界点时,我们给出了一个简单的准则。我们探讨了通过非免疫或半免疫或蚊子等特定亚群控制疟疾的可能性。

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