Rosenbaum Paul R, Silber Jeffrey H
University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
J Am Stat Assoc. 2009 Dec 1;104(488):1398-1405. doi: 10.1198/jasa.2009.tm08470.
A sensitivity analysis displays the increase in uncertainty that attends an inference when a key assumption is relaxed. In matched observational studies of treatment effects, a key assumption in some analyses is that subjects matched for observed covariates are comparable, and this assumption is relaxed by positing a relevant covariate that was not observed and not controlled by matching. What properties would such an unobserved covariate need to have to materially alter the inference about treatment effects? For ease of calculation and reporting, it is convenient that the sensitivity analysis be of low dimension, perhaps indexed by a scalar sensitivity parameter, but for interpretation in specific contexts, a higher dimensional analysis may be of greater relevance. An amplification of a sensitivity analysis is defined as a map from each point in a low dimensional sensitivity analysis to a set of points, perhaps a 'curve,' in a higher dimensional sensitivity analysis such that the possible inferences are the same for all points in the set. Possessing an amplification, an investigator may calculate and report the low dimensional analysis, yet have available the interpretations of the higher dimensional analysis.
敏感性分析展示了在放松关键假设时,推理过程中不确定性的增加。在治疗效果的匹配观察性研究中,某些分析的一个关键假设是,为观察到的协变量进行匹配的受试者具有可比性,而通过假定一个未观察到且未通过匹配进行控制的相关协变量,可以放宽这一假设。这样一个未观察到的协变量需要具备哪些属性才能实质性地改变关于治疗效果的推断呢?为便于计算和报告,敏感性分析为低维形式较为方便,或许可由一个标量敏感性参数来索引,但对于特定背景下的解释而言,高维分析可能更具相关性。敏感性分析的放大被定义为从低维敏感性分析中的每个点到高维敏感性分析中的一组点(或许是一条“曲线”)的映射,使得该集合中所有点的可能推断都是相同的。拥有一个放大,研究者可以计算并报告低维分析结果,同时也能获得高维分析的解释。