Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda.
PLoS One. 2012;7(7):e41135. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0041135. Epub 2012 Jul 24.
Rapidly spreading infectious diseases are a serious risk to public health. The dynamics and the factors causing outbreaks of these diseases can be better understood using mathematical models, which are fit to data. Here we investigate the dynamics of a Hepatitis E outbreak in the Kitgum region of northern Uganda during 2007 to 2009. First, we use the data to determine that R0 is approximately 2.25 for the outbreak. Secondly, we use a model to estimate that the critical level of latrine and bore hole coverages needed to eradicate the epidemic is at least 16% and 17% respectively. Lastly, we further investigate the relationship between the co-infection factor for malaria and Hepatitis E on the value of R0 for Hepatitis E. Taken together, these results provide us with a better understanding of the dynamics and possible causes of Hepatitis E outbreaks.
快速传播的传染病对公众健康构成严重威胁。使用适合数据的数学模型可以更好地了解这些疾病爆发的动态和原因。在这里，我们调查了 2007 年至 2009 年期间乌干达北部基特古姆地区爆发的戊型肝炎的动态。首先，我们利用数据确定 R0 约为 2.25。其次，我们使用模型估计要根除疫情所需的厕所和钻孔覆盖的临界水平分别至少为 16%和 17%。最后，我们进一步研究了疟疾和戊型肝炎的共同感染因素对戊型肝炎 R0 值的影响。总之，这些结果使我们更好地了解了戊型肝炎爆发的动态和可能原因。
