Vasco Daniel A, Wearing Helen J, Rohani Pejman
Institute of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
J Theor Biol. 2007 Mar 7;245(1):9-25. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.08.015. Epub 2006 Aug 30.
Traditionally, epidemiological studies have focused on understanding the dynamics of a single pathogen, assuming no interactions with other pathogens. Recently, a large body of work has begun to explore the effects of immune-mediated interactions, arising from cross-immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement, between related pathogen strains. In addition, ecological processes such as a temporary period of convalescence and pathogen-induced mortality have led to the concept of ecological interference between unrelated diseases. There remains, however, the need for a systematic study of both immunological and ecological processes within a single framework. In this paper, we develop a general two-pathogen single-host model of pathogen interactions that simultaneously incorporates these mechanisms. We are then able to mechanistically explore how immunoecological processes mediate interactions between diseases for a pool of susceptible individuals. We show that the precise nature of the interaction can induce either competitive or cooperative associations between pathogens. Understanding the dynamic implications of multi-pathogen associations has potentially important public health consequences. Such a framework may be especially helpful in disentangling the effects of partially cross-immunizing infections that affect populations with a pre-disposition towards immunosuppression such as children and the elderly.
传统上，流行病学研究专注于理解单一病原体的动态变化，假定其与其他病原体无相互作用。最近，大量研究开始探讨相关病原体菌株之间因交叉免疫和抗体依赖增强而产生的免疫介导相互作用的影响。此外，诸如恢复期的短暂阶段和病原体诱导的死亡率等生态过程，引发了无关疾病之间生态干扰的概念。然而，仍需要在单一框架内对免疫和生态过程进行系统研究。在本文中，我们构建了一个通用的双病原体单宿主病原体相互作用模型，该模型同时纳入了这些机制。然后，我们能够从机制上探究免疫生态过程如何介导易感个体群体中疾病之间的相互作用。我们表明，相互作用的精确性质可导致病原体之间产生竞争或合作关系。理解多病原体关联的动态影响具有潜在的重要公共卫生意义。这样一个框架可能在理清影响儿童和老年人等易发生免疫抑制人群的部分交叉免疫感染的影响方面特别有帮助。
