中国南方流感病毒的流行病学动态和系统地理学研究。
Epidemiological dynamics and phylogeography of influenza virus in southern China.
机构信息
Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China.
出版信息
J Infect Dis. 2013 Jan 1;207(1):106-14. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jis526. Epub 2012 Aug 28.
BACKGROUND
Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of influenza virus is central to surveillance and vaccine strain selection. It has been suggested that tropical and subtropical regions represent the global source of influenza epidemics. However, our understanding of the epidemiological dynamics of influenza virus in these regions is limited by a relative lack of long-term data.
METHODS
We analyzed epidemiological and virological data on influenza recorded over a period of 15 years from the metropolitan city of Shenzhen in subtropical southern China. We used wavelet analysis to determine the periodicity of influenza epidemics and molecular phylogeographic analysis to investigate the role of Shenzhen and southern China in the global evolution of influenza virus.
RESULTS
We show that southern China is unlikely to represent an epicenter of global influenza activity, because activity in Shenzhen is characterized by significant annual cycles, multiple viral introductions every year, limited persistence across epidemic seasons, and viruses that generally are not positioned on the trunk of the global influenza virus phylogeny.
CONCLUSIONS
We propose that novel influenza viruses emerge and evolve in multiple geographic localities and that the global evolution of influenza virus is complex and does not simply originate from a southern Chinese epicenter.
背景
了解流感病毒的流行病学动态对于监测和疫苗株选择至关重要。有人认为，热带和亚热带地区是流感流行的全球源头。然而，由于长期数据相对缺乏，我们对这些地区流感病毒的流行病学动态的了解受到限制。
方法
我们分析了来自中国南部亚热带大都市深圳的 15 年来记录的流感流行病学和病毒学数据。我们使用小波分析来确定流感流行的周期性，并进行分子系统地理学分析，以调查深圳和中国南方在流感病毒全球进化中的作用。
结果
我们表明，中国南方不太可能是全球流感活动的中心，因为深圳的活动特点是明显的年度周期性、每年多次病毒传入、流行季节的有限持续时间以及通常不在全球流感病毒系统发育树主干上的病毒。
结论
我们提出，新的流感病毒在多个地理区域出现和演变，流感病毒的全球进化是复杂的，并不简单地起源于中国南方的一个中心。
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